Brezilya F-X2 İhalesinde Gripen Önde (mi?) - Gelişmeler

Gripen'ın Brezilya'daki şansının oldukça yüksek olduğuna dair yeni haberler geliyor. En son İtalyan Selex Galileo firması, F-X2 projesi için önerilen Gripen NG'de kullanılacak AESA radar sisteminin ortak geliştirilmesi için Brezilyalı ATMOS firması ile 5 Ocak'ta bir mutabakat muhtırası imzalamış.

Jane's Defence Industry'nin 06.01.2010 tarihli haberine göre Vixen 1000E/ES05 Raven adlı radarın geliştirilmesi için Brezilyalı ATMOS firmasına teknoloji transferi ve bazı parçaların üretimi verilecek. ATMOS ayrıca radarın üçüncü ülkelere satışında da pay sahibi olacak.

Selex teams with ATMOS to boost Gripen F-X2 bid

Date Posted:  06-Jan-2010

Jane's Defence Industry

Gareth Jennings Jane's Aviation Desk Editor

Selex Galileo has signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) with Brazil's ATMOS Sistemas to collaborate in the development of its active electronically scanned array (AESA) radar for the Saab JAS 39 Gripen NG combat aircraft, it announced on 5 January.

The Vixen 1000E/ES05 Raven AESA radar, which is currently being wholly developed by Selex Sensors and Airborne Systems in Edinburgh, Scotland, is a major selling point for the Gripen's entry into Brazil's F-X2 fighter replacement competition, the result of which is due to announced later this year.

According to Selex, the MoU will include technology transfer, work share and co-operative development of the radar, all of which are key requirements in the F-X2 bid to equip the Brazilian Air Force (Força Aérea Brasileira - FAB) with 36 next-generation fighter aircraft (a total that could rise to as many as 120 aircraft, in Jane's view, by the completion of the programme).

As all the component parts of the Raven radar have already been cleared for export, technology export approval for the system should not be a problem.

With the radar being developed in Scotland, the Swedish Gripen NG bid already has the full backing of the UK government, and teaming with another Brazilian company (Saab has already secured an industrial partnership with Brazilian aerospace group Embraer) will boost its chances still further.

Tony Ogilvy, Vice-President, International Marketing for Gripen, told Jane's in November 2009 that the fact that neither Sweden nor the UK have any "real history" in Latin America will be seen as an advantage by the Brazilian government.

Through Embraer, Brazil would produce 40 per cent of each Gripen sold to the FAB and will have exclusive export rights to the rest of Latin America if the Swedish fighter won the F-X2 contest.

While Ogilvy feels that the Gripen is "most definitely" the aircraft of choice for the FAB, he concedes that, with Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva having already publicly stated his preference for the rival Dassault Rafale, the final choice may come down to political expediency rather than platform capability.

Dassault has not made public details of its bid and local teaming arrangements. However, the Brazilian president told Agence France Presse on 5 September 2009 that the French package of technology transfer options gave Rafale an "exceptional comparative advantage" in the tender.

The third competitor in the competition is Boeing with its F/A-18E/F Super Hornet. Boeing has offered local assembly of the aircraft and will subcontract the manufacture of a number of subassemblies for the platform to Brazilian industry. In-country support by local industry for both the aircraft and engine are also included in the Boeing bid, with the company offering to integrate Brazil's current non-US missile inventory onto the aircraft.

Bu arada defence-aerospace sitesi, "Brezilya F-X2 İhalesinde Gripen Önde (mi?)" başlıklı yazımda bahsettiğim, Folha de Sao Paolo gazetesinin haberinin tam metnini, İngilizce'ye çevirerek yayınlamış. Haber metninin satır aralarında Brezilya Hava Kuvvetleri'nin söz konusu teknik değerlendirme raporuna ilişkin ayrıntılar var. Çeviri metnindeki koyu ile işaretlenmiş vurguları ben ekledim.

Brazilian Air Force Recommends Purchase of Gripen NG, the Least Expensive Finalist of the FX-2 Competition  

(Source: Folha de San Paolo; published Jan. 5, 2009)

(Issued in Portuguese only; unofficial translation by defense-aerospace.com)

SAO PAOLO, Brazil --- The French Dassault Rafale fighter was rated in third and last place in the technical report that the Brazilian Air Force Command submitted to Defense Minister Nelson Jobim on the project FX-2 fleet renewal program.

The Gripen NG, offered by Sweden’s Saab, ranked first in the evaluation, and the F-18 Super Hornet offered by US-based Boeing came second.

The result will constrains the government and further delay the final decision on the proposed purchase of 36 new combat aircraft, by opposing the pro-Swedish technical evaluation of the Air Force to the political and diplomatic preference given by President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva to the offer presented by the French.

The decision in favor of Rafale was even announced in a joint statement signed by Presidents Lula and Nicolas Sarkozy last September, but the Brazilian government soft-pedaled after the strong political backlash which emerged because the air force had not completed the technical evaluation of the competitors.

Now the government is at an impasse: either over-rules the air force, and buys the Rafale, or its risks French anger by following the air force’s recommendations and buying the Gripen NG. Formally, the President is free to choose any of the three.

According to Folha, the "executive summary" of the report of FAB with the final conclusions of more than 30,000 pages of data, pointed to the financial factor as decisive for tanking the Gripen NG in first place. Gripen NG is single-engined and is still in the design phase although based on the current Gripen, and it is the cheapest of the three final competitors.

The difference in price is as much on cost of the aircraft as on the cost of its maintenance. Saab says it offered the Gripen NG at half the price of the Rafale, or about US $ 70 million per unit. It also says that its cost per flight hour is one-fourth of the Rafale’s, which Dassault disputes: as the Rafale has two engines, it is admittedly more expensive to operate, but would also perform better.

The Brazilian air force, which would bear these costs during the 30-year life of the aircraft, considers this a priority issue.

The technology transfer issue also weighed on the air force’s recommendation. The Gripen NG is still in the development phase, and in theory this offers greater access to its technologies for future business partners, such as Embraer. Saab promised to locate final production in Brazil, but Dassault has also offered it for the Rafale. The problem, the air force said, is that the Rafale is a finished product, which would presumably allow only a lower rate of transfer of production know-how.

The report of the FAB did not consider as negative the fact that the Swedish aircraft is single-engined, as in modern aircraft that is seen as a minor problem in the incidence of accidents.

The Rafale had three major obstacles, according to the air force’s evaluation:

1) Its price is considered prohibitive, despite what French President Nicolas Sarkozy promised Lula.

2) The promised transfer of technology was considered lacking in ambition by Brazil. This is a "finished product", which would be difficult for Brazil to sell to other countries.

3) Embraer, consulted by the Air Force, said that if the Rafale was chosen it would have no interest in participating in the project because it would gain very little in terms of technology and business.

The evaluation report was prepared by COPAC (Coordinating Committee for the Combat Aircraft Program) and ratified by the High Command of the Air Force on December 18.

Jobim returned to Brasilia last night ready to meet with the Air Force commander, Brigadier Juniti Saito. Officially, to gain time, the government’s position is that the FAB has not handed in the document.

The minister already knew the outcome from a trip he took with Saito as China and Ukraine at the end of the year. The two used a layover in Paris to discuss the issue with the president of COPAC, Brigadier Dirceu Tondolo Noro, who, according to Folha, was called to meet them in the French capital at very short notice.

The Brazilian procurement is one of the major acquisition programs in the world, and may exceed 10 billion Brazilian reals.

In an interview with Folha in December, Jobim admitted that he had intervened to change the rules of the COAPC report, but without acknowledging that his intention was to prevent the air force from selecting an aircraft that would have displeased the Planalto (Brazil’s Presidential residence—Ed.)

Brezilya F-X2 İhalesinde Gripen Önde (mi?)

DefenseNews haberine göre Brezilya Hava Kuvvetleri'nin tercihi Gripen'dan yana. Haberin kaynağı Brezilyalı Folha de Sao Paolo gazetesinin ele geçirdiği ve Brezilya Hava Kuvvetleri tarafından hazırlanmış bir rapor.

Bu rapora göre Rafale, Brezilya HvK'nin ikinci tercihi bile değilmiş. Gripen'dan sonraki tercih F/A-18E/F Super Hornet olarak belirlenmiş.

Brezilya Devlet Başkanı de Silva bir süre önce Fransız Devlet Başkanı Sarkozy ile görüşmesinden sonra, Rafale için görüşmelere başlanacağı gafını yapmıştı. Devlet Başkanı'nın bu açıklamasından sonra Brezilya Savunma Bakanlığı, ihalenin henüz tamamlanmadığı, nihai kararın verilmediği şeklinde düzeltme yayınlamak zorunda kalmıştı.

Habere göre Gripen'ın en avantajlı olduğu alanlar düşük maliyeti ve önerilen geniş teknolojik katılım paketleri. Rafale'nin orta - uzun vadede ortak üretimde fazla  bir kâr marjı ihtimaline sahip olmaması, başka bir ifade ile uzun vadede üçüncü ülkelere ihrac şansının düşük olması, uçağın yüksek fiyat etiketi ile birlikte listenin sonunda yer almasına neden olmuş.

Brazilian Air Force Backs Gripen In Jet Debate

AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE

Published: 6 Jan 2010 06:55
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BRASILIA, Brazil - The Brazilian Air Force's first choice in the contest for a $7 billion contract for 36 high-tech fighter jets is the NG Gripen by Sweden's Saab, and not the government's pick, the French Rafale, Folha de Sao Paulo reported Jan. 5.

Citing an Air Force technical report, the newspaper said the French jet was not even the Air Force's second pick for the fighters. The runner-up was the F/A-18 Super Hornet by U.S. group Boeing.

The Rafale, an multirole fighter made by Dassault, had been seen as leading the pack since President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and French President Nicolas Sarkozy announced jointly in September that Brazil was negotiating to buy the delta-winged aircraft.

If that intent to purchase is confirmed, it would be the first export sale of the Rafale, possibly making it more attractive to other potential buyers Switzerland and India.

But Saab and Boeing are fighting fiercely to land the Brazilian contract, reportedly slashing prices to do so.

Lula's government has said the deal is not yet done with Dassault. It is waiting for an Air Force evaluation of the three contenders to be completed. Still, Lula has stressed that the final decision is his, and will be based on political and strategic considerations.

The priority for Brazil is to acquire technology through the purchase so it can end up with the capability to build its own 21st-century fighters.

Folha said the Air Force preferred the Swedish model because it was less costly and potentially had better commercial possibilities. And profit margins on future local production of the French jet were theoretically less interesting to local aviation giant Embraer, the Folha report added.
http://www.defensenews.com/story.php?i=4443339&c=AME&s=AIR

Çin Ticari Uçak Pazarı Büyüyecek - Öyle Böyle Değil!

Military & Aerospace Electronics sitesinde yer alan habere göre, Boeing, ticari yolcu ve kargo uçakları alanında Çin'de önümüzdeki 20 yıl için 490 Milyar Dolar'lık bir talep öngörüyor. Şirketin değerlendirmesine göre 2028 yılı itibariyle Çin'in ticari uçak filosu 3 kat büyümüş olacak. 4,610 adet uçaktan bahsediliyor ki, bu da Avrupa'daki toplam ticari uçak sayısına eşit bir filo anlamına geliyor.

Çin'deki tek koridorlu Boeing 737NG muadili uçak pazarının 70% büyümesi ve 2,640 uçaklık bir talebe ulaşması bekleniyor. Çift koridorlu Boeing 787 ve 777 Dreamliner sınıfı için 790 adet söz konusu. 747 muadili büyük uçaklar için 75 civarı bir talep hesaplanmış.

Ticari hava kargo taşımacılığı pazarında ise filonun 4 kat büyüyerek 2028 yılında 300 uçağa ulaşması öngörülmüş.

Çin'in demografik ve coğrafi boyutu, gelişen sanayi ve ekonomisi ile şehirleşme oranı gözönüne alındığında, rakamların muazzamlığı anlam kazanıyor. Bu gelişen pazar sadece uçak üreticileri için değil, motor, bakım & onarım, aviyonik, eğitim & simülasyon gibi sektörler için de büyük fırsatlar anlamına gelmekte.

Boeing projects $400 billion market for new airplanes in China

BEIJING, 28 Sept. 2009 Boeing [NYSE: BA] detailed its 2009 market update for commercial airplanes for China region, forecasting a requirement for 3,770 new airplanes valued at $490 billion over the next 20 years. Over the forecast period, China is and will remain the largest market outside the U.S. for new commercial airplanes.

"China is the world's most dynamic market for commercial airplanes," says Randy Tinseth, Boeing Commercial Airplanes vice president of marketing. "The strong domestic air travel growth in China in the first half of 2009 gives us confidence that the world aviation industry is beginning to recover."

China air travel and air cargo market growth will cause China's fleet to more than triple to 4,610 airplanes by 2028, to about as many airplanes as are operating in Europe today, -- creating more opportunities for designers of avionics systems.

Single-aisle airplanes will account for 70 percent of the new purchases, driven by China's fast-growing domestic market. Single-aisle airplanes such as the Boeing Next-Generation 737 will be the largest category, with 2,640 new airplane deliveries. Demand for intermediate twin-aisles, such as the Boeing 787 Dreamliner and 777, will result in approximately 790 airplane deliveries. When combined, the single-aisle and intermediate twin-aisle market will make up 91 percent of China's total delivery dollars.

Demand will include a limited number of large airplanes (747-size and larger) to connect China with other major world destinations. The market forecast calls for about 75 airplanes in that category.

With China's cargo markets leading the global industry, Chinese freight carriers will add about 300 freighter airplanes by 2028, almost quadrupling its total freighter fleet size.

The Boeing 2009 forecast combines today's market environment with a long-term view that portrays how air transport will be transformed over the next 20 years. It's an outlook that indicates continued strong fundamentals underlying the need for new airplanes -- including economic growth, world trade, aviation market liberalization, and new aircraft capabilities.

The detailed study enables Boeing to better work with airlines to support fleet plans in conjunction with the airlines' future economic growth. The outlook facilitates Boeing's strategic plans to drive the development of new airplanes and the improvement of existing models.

Worldwide, Boeing projects investments of $3.2 trillion for 29,000 new commercial airplanes to be delivered during the next 20 years.
http://mae.pennnet.com/display_article/369478/32/ARTCL/none/EXECW/1/Boeing-projects-$400-billion-market-for-new-airplanes-in-China/?cmpid=EnlDefExecOctober62009